Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:09:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B7 0xb781…9ba9 sports 361 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,201 (+1%) realized +$1,123 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%189W / 139L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$398per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$439est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$22,489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2,213
14 days−$2,977
30 days−$2,609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$2,783
other 42% +$1,155
world 4% −$3,257
tech 1% −$110
crypto 0% −$96
politics 0% −$102
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -13.4% -21.7% 51% 47% -7.3%
≤30d 69 -15.8% -23.8% 49% 46% -8.3%
≤90d 177 -6.9% -15.7% 56% 50% -6.3%
all 328 -4.9% -14.0% 58% 49% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 49% -6.6%
10% -22.2% 41% -15.5%
15% -29.7% 33% -23.7%
20% -36.6% 27% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$194 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$22,489
Realized+$1,123
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses189 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$439
Open positions33
Markets (closed)328 / 361
History coverage171d
Avg bet$398
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 95¢ $9,110 $9,063 −$47 (-1%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $7,338 $7,316 −$22 (-0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1,100 $1,094 −$6 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $677 $874 +$197 (+29%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $499 $487 −$13 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $284 $294 +$10 (+4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $98 $204 +$107 (+109%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 85¢ 84¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-3%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 81¢ 74¢ $202 $185 −$17 (-9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $151 $165 +$14 (+9%)
Will Notre Dame Fighting Irish win the 2027 CFP National Championship? Yes 20¢ 13¢ $240 $158 −$82 (-34%)
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $150 $146 −$5 (-3%)
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $152 $140 −$12 (-8%)
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $159 $124 −$35 (-22%)
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $113 $122 +$9 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 70¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $100 +$20 +20%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $89 +$11 +12%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $462 +$44 +10%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $204 −$68 -33%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $412 −$225 -55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $214 +$26 +12%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $104 +$15 +14%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $101 +$26 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $206 +$128 +62%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,364 +$191 +14%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $13,801 +$2,240 +16%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Lionel Messi win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? Jun 18 $200 −$27 -14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$148 +146%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$11 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $49 +$81 +163%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9,836 +$5,132 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $102 +$143 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$21 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $505 −$46 -9%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 16 $104 −$102 -98%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $142 −$16 -12%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $71 +$18 +26%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $103 −$29 -28%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $139 −$4 -3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5,053 −$3,257 -64%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,434 −$3,399 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,521 −$1,506 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,609 +$651 +40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,107 −$2,102 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $155 −$153 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,606 +$136 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,008 +$380 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $203 −$112 -55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 12 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $206 +$84 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $104 +$46 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $303 +$227 +75%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 07 $104 −$103 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $111 −$110 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $9,122 46m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 1h
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 1h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $89 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $100 3h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 83¢ $959 3h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $17 3h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 6h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 7h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 8h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 9h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 11h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 12h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 12h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 12h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 12h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 12h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 13h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $201 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,009 15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 53¢ $136 15h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,489.32 · official $22,512.25 (match) · 1479 history records