Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:10:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb77f…8b69 other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$198 (-1%) realized −$244 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate59%69W / 47L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$2,087now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days+$62
14 days+$68
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$52
crypto 20% +$11
finance 5% +$3
sports 2% −$469
world 2% +$5
tech 0% −$13
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -63.1% -66.6% 35% 5% -9.0%
≤30d 67 -41.2% -46.8% 52% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 116 -32.9% -39.3% 59% 11% -11.0%
all 116 -32.9% -39.3% 59% 11% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.3% 11% -11.0%
10% -45.1% 6% -19.5%
15% -50.4% 4% -27.3%
20% -55.3% 2% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$19 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$2,087
Realized−$244
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses69 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions56
Markets (closed)116 / 111
History coverage62d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $986 $984 −$2 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $822 $829 +$7 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $24 $29 +$5 (+19%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $26 +$9 (+55%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $25 +$8 (+49%)
Will Graham Platner win less than 65% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary? No 79¢ 100¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+26%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $19 −$3 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 18¢ $2 $18 +$17 (+1007%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $18 −$5 (-20%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+725%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $2 $13 +$11 (+671%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $2 $12 +$11 (+635%)
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 56¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+79%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+383%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+299%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+239%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+137%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Martin Zubimendi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-56%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $991 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $491 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $490 +$8 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1,370 +$23 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $441 +$60 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1,294 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $592 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $518 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $775 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $674 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $298 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,395 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $1,403 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $796 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $16 −$13 -78%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10? Jun 09 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $796 +$1 +0%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica Jun 09 $8 −$1 -10%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $784 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $794 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $987 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $457 7h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $498 7h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 7h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $991 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $315 30h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $655 30h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $826 30h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $495 40h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $498 43h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $961 45h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $491 45h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,393 47h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $490 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $501 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,370 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,297 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $398 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $7 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $598 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $592 3d
Will Martin Zubimendi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 3d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $519 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,294 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $518 4d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $779 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $674 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $276 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,086.98 · official $2,087.48 (match) · 434 history records