Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:17:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb77e…e0b9 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$9
other 23% +$24
crypto 5% −$2
politics 5% $0
tech 5% +$1
sports 3% +$8
weather 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 0% -11.2%
all 34 +8.4% -1.9% 38% 6% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 6% -7.4%
10% -11.3% 6% -16.2%
15% -19.9% 6% -24.3%
20% -27.7% 6% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage475d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $67 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $58 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $127 −$12 -9%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $48 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $75 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $33 +$3 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 22 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? Apr 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 2 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the Hart Trophy? Apr 26 $33 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $8 +$27 +342%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.125 in March? Apr 02 $2 $0 -31%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Apr 02 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Mar 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 58°F or higher on March 26? Mar 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $18 $0 -2%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 22 $6 $0 -0%
Montana vs. Portland State Mar 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Yale vs. Harvard Mar 01 $16 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $35 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $35 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $14 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $12 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $26 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $11 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $21 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $33 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $30 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $3 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $5 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $28 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $32 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $26 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $9 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $32 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $32 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $15 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $48 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $2 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $41 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $44 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $48 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $48 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 80¢ $25 20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 80¢ $4 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records