Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb77b…ba52 crypto 460 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,072 (+1%) realized +$1,065 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%452W / 4L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$438per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,920now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$44
14 days+$351
30 days+$412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,024
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 99 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 305 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 456 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$519) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×53.02 per $1 lost it wins $53.02
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$2,920
Realized+$1,065
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses452 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)456 / 460
History coverage141d
Avg bet$438
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 456 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $936 $942 +$6 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $936 $937 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $520 $521 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $520 $520 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $182 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $302 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $519 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $519 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $830 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $830 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $518 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $518 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $518 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,554 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $466 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $466 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $789 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $789 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $507 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $514 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $514 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $514 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,021 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,017 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,528 +$32 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $509 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $507 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $507 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $507 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $507 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,014 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $497 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $498 +$23 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $497 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $497 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $994 +$21 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $494 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $494 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $988 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $989 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $489 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $978 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $489 +$11 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $978 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $963 +$45 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $960 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $960 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $468 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $470 +$29 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $520 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $520 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $520 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $520 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $416 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $416 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $120 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $120 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $182 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $182 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $519 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $519 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $311 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $311 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $519 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $519 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $518 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $518 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $518 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $518 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $518 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $518 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $104 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $52 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $52 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $466 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $466 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $439 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $439 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,919.94 · official $2,919.94 (match) · 1385 history records