Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B7 0xb778…9109 world 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% +$4
crypto 10% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.2% -11.5% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 4 -2.2% -11.5% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 4 -2.2% -11.5% 25% 0% -10.0%
all 4 -2.2% -11.5% 25% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -10.0%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? Jun 23 $322 +$4 +1%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 23 $326 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Jun 22 $72 −$7 -10%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 22 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $326 1h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $322 3h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $326 3h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $326 6h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $65 23h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 23h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 23h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $20 23h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 23h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $22 25h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records