Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B7 0xb76f…bf16 other 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 35L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$593per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$10
other 33% −$7
world 17% −$3
finance 6% −$1
crypto 5% −$2
economics 5% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,119) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage91d
Avg bet$593
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 28 $1,207 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,269 −$2 -0%
Will Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 27 $1,122 −$1 -0%
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 27 $1,119 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $79 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,132 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,121 −$2 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $66 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 26 $1,161 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,177 −$2 -0%
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? Jun 26 $1,208 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? May 20 $41 $0 -1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio May 15 $1,056 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $979 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $1,021 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $1,107 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 14 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial May 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 13 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? May 13 $989 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $957 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 01 $153 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $190 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $62 $0 -0%
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Mar 28 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $38 17m
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,206 24m
Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $14 32m
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,179 40m
Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $11 46m
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,267 55m
Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,242 1h
Will Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $883 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $237 1h
Will Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,122 1h
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,118 21h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $79 21h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 22h
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,057 22h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 22h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 22h
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 22h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $857 23h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $262 23h
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 23h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,121 23h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $66 37h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,160 38h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $12 38h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,150 38h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $26 38h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,175 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records