Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:13:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B7 0xb767…d848 sports 886 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,617 (-2%) realized −$7,557 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate65%579W / 309L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$422per market
Trades / day117.6pace
Fees−$2,895est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$7,246
other 16% −$3,398
crypto 0% −$161
politics 0% +$7
weather 0% +$34
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 283 +10.3% -0.2% 63% 12% -16.3%
≤30d 888 +0.7% -8.9% 65% 27% -11.4%
≤90d 888 +0.7% -8.9% 65% 27% -11.4%
all 888 +0.7% -8.9% 65% 27% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover117.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 27% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 6% -19.9%
15% -25.6% 3% -27.6%
20% -32.9% 2% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$138 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$407
Realized−$7,557
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses579 / 309
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$2,895
Open positions10
Markets (closed)888 / 886
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$422
Trades / day117.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 888 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 53¢ 52¢ $201 $199 −$2 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 41¢ 26¢ $164 $106 −$58 (-35%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 93¢ 96¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $41 $40 −$2 (-4%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Under 44¢ 66¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+51%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 89¢ 88¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 94¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 93¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Under 50¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 17 $304 −$248 -82%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $500 −$406 -81%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 17 $402 −$402 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Cristina Bucsa Jun 17 $370 −$370 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $280 −$280 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Col Jun 17 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Japan vs P Jun 17 $101 −$87 -86%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 17 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $49 −$1 -1%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $48 +$3 +6%
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,095 −$278 -13%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $48 +$3 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 −$1 -2%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $1,051 −$171 -16%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $49 −$7 -15%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $50 −$9 -19%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 16 $49 +$1 +3%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $46 +$7 +15%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $49 +$2 +4%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $48 +$4 +8%
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $47 +$4 +9%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $49 +$2 +4%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao Jun 16 $49 +$1 +3%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $49 +$2 +3%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $46 −$4 -8%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $50 +$4 +9%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Jun 16 $44 +$6 +14%
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan Jun 16 $49 +$4 +8%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $41 $0 -1%
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $48 +$4 +7%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 16 $200 +$38 +19%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $41 −$4 -9%
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 16 $47 +$5 +10%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $41 +$1 +2%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $49 +$2 +4%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 16 $49 −$10 -20%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $31 +$2 +5%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $47 −$6 -12%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 96¢ $51 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $47 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $200 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $350 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $574 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $835 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $47 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $124 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $6 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $200 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $100 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $186 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 49¢ $13 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 3m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 79¢ $41 6m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 94¢ $28 13m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 94¢ $22 13m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 93¢ $49 21m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 91¢ $49 22m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 87¢ $18 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $406.60 · official $406.60 (match) · 3500 history records