Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb766…1d83 other 391 markets active 3h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$946 (+0%) realized −$1,753 · open +$2,699
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate49%177W / 182L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,162per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$41,328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$576
7 days+$182
14 days+$372
30 days+$6,661
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$13,606
world 30% +$9,821
politics 14% +$1,819
sports 4% +$1,491
tech 1% −$119
culture 1% +$218
finance 1% +$340
economics 0% +$128
crypto 0% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -31.7% -38.2% 39% 29% -8.9%
≤30d 56 +6.5% -3.6% 50% 43% +1.8%
≤90d 112 +0.6% -9.0% 46% 40% -7.4%
all 359 +0.0% -9.5% 49% 33% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 33% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 20% -18.7%
15% -26.1% 16% -26.6%
20% -33.3% 13% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$885) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$250 vs −$257 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$41,328
Realized−$1,753
Unrealized+$2,699
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses177 / 182
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions33
Markets (closed)359 / 391
History coverage234d
Avg bet$1,162
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 88¢ $8,742 $10,869 +$2,128 (+24%)
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 84¢ 94¢ $5,645 $6,368 +$723 (+13%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 40¢ 62¢ $2,716 $4,168 +$1,452 (+53%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 64¢ 84¢ $2,581 $3,386 +$805 (+31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $2,690 $3,276 +$586 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2,181 $1,838 −$343 (-16%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 44¢ 14¢ $3,340 $1,095 −$2,245 (-67%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1,247 $1,088 −$159 (-13%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 88¢ $934 $1,062 +$128 (+14%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 96¢ $838 $892 +$53 (+6%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 95¢ $853 $875 +$22 (+3%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 47¢ 76¢ $494 $798 +$304 (+62%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 91¢ 99¢ $721 $789 +$68 (+9%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 82¢ 92¢ $545 $610 +$65 (+12%)
Will Scotland finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 78¢ 82¢ $410 $432 +$22 (+5%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $414 $419 +$5 (+1%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 82¢ $405 $412 +$7 (+2%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $368 $372 +$4 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $350 $328 −$22 (-6%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $313 $318 +$5 (+1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $228 $247 +$20 (+9%)
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 82¢ 90¢ $223 $246 +$23 (+10%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $131 $226 +$95 (+72%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? No 66¢ 69¢ $206 $214 +$8 (+4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 43¢ 42¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $423 +$137 +32%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $224 −$222 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $245 −$240 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $154 −$82 -53%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $202 −$115 -57%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $290 −$61 -21%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,193 +$433 +36%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $917 −$707 -77%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $151 +$21 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $572 −$565 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $252 −$4 -2%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $443 −$23 -5%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $38 +$12 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 −$111 -54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $107 −$15 -14%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $734 +$504 +69%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $858 +$392 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $142 −$140 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $674 −$657 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $411 +$61 +15%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $18,483 +$1,516 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,653 +$145 +9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $74 −$43 -58%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $446 +$380 +85%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $31 +$46 +152%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $56 −$55 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$72 +71%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 +$2 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $301 −$16 -6%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 12 $290 +$8 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $205 +$225 +110%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $81 −$80 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $173 +$197 +114%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 04 $62 −$7 -11%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2,071 +$751 +36%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $625 +$1,857 +297%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $26 +$4 +15%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 25 $180 +$130 +72%
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 23 $2,082 −$507 -24%
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 23 $977 +$171 +18%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 23 $1,177 +$187 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 81¢ $407 3h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $339 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $423 11h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $9 11h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $35 11h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 74¢ $224 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $245 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 20¢ $26 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 48¢ $66 16h
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 92¢ $369 30h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $13 30h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $30 30h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $576 38h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $265 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 57¢ $46 40h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $73 40h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 30¢ $1 44h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 30¢ $22 45h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 35¢ $70 47h
Will Scotland finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY No 79¢ $8 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 57¢ $4 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 57¢ $1 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 57¢ $80 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $52 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $56 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $177 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $202 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $234 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $246 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $214 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41,327.64 · official $41,327.21 (match) · 2763 history records