Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:34:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb766…7f6d other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+1%) realized +$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%44W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$38
world 24% +$18
politics 19% +$13
tech 7% +$2
sports 5% +$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 12 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 45 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses44 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage235d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $152 $151 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 23 $152 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th Jun 05 $151 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? Jun 01 $151 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 27 $1,213 +$7 +1%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 10 $1,196 +$18 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 01 $2,351 +$17 +1%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 12 $2,338 +$12 +0%
Will Netflix reach $175 in March? Apr 01 $136 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of March? Apr 01 $479 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $140 end of March? Apr 01 $550 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $1,054 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? Mar 27 $1,023 +$2 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th Mar 25 $139 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 15 $139 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $138 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of February? Mar 01 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of February? Mar 01 $104 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w Feb 25 $104 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w Feb 15 $103 +$1 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of February 2 above $490? Feb 07 $103 $0 +0%
Will Apple reach $308 in January? Feb 01 $136 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? Jan 30 $135 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Jan 23 $134 +$1 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$140 on the final day of trading of the Jan 17 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on January 10? Jan 13 $134 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? Jan 10 $134 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $310 before 2026? Jan 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Palantir dip to $105 in December? Jan 03 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 26 $107 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 14? Dec 23 $107 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 7? Dec 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 08 $60 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 2? Dec 08 $72 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? Dec 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 30? Dec 03 $31 +$1 +2%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 03 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 29 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? Nov 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025? Nov 19 $130 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 15 $130 $0 +0%
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? Nov 08 $125 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1? Nov 02 $123 +$2 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 01 $120 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $152 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $152 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $9 9d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $119 9d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $17 9d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $7 9d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $151 22d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $151 26d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 27d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $72 27d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $65 27d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $72 27d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $362 27d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $71 27d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $71 27d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 27d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 27d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4 27d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $12 27d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $77 27d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $297 27d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $61 27d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 27d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $91 44d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $86 44d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 44d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $91 44d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $91 44d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $92 44d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $88 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.47 · official $151.47 (match) · 205 history records