Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb765…2929 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$621 (-26%) realized +$4 · open −$625
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +65% what you keep after slip
Net edge+65%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$1,318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$97
14 days+$97
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$665
crypto 2% +$37
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+65.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +137.3% +114.7% 80% 80% +36.9%
≤30d 10 +82.8% +65.4% 70% 70% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +82.8% +65.4% 70% 70% -9.3%
all 10 +82.8% +65.4% 70% 70% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +65.4% 70% -9.3%
10% +49.6% 60% -17.9%
15% +35.1% 60% -25.9%
20% +21.9% 50% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +83% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$55 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$1,318
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$625
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage69d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1,944 $1,318 −$625 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $111 +$55 +49%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $2 +$13 +650%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 08 $127 −$124 -98%
Will Singapore win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $31 +$51 +165%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $7 +$4 +54%
Will Japan vs. Iceland end in a draw? May 31 $3 +$4 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $109 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $66 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 5d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $127 17d
Will Singapore win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 20d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 23d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,003 25d
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 25d
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 25d
Will Japan vs. Iceland end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 25d
Will Japan vs. Iceland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 25d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $298 50d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $299 67d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $150 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,318.24 · official $1,318.24 (match) · 95 history records