Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:24:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B7 0xb764…51dd crypto 1300 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 158d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,826 (-2%) realized −$4,724 · open −$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate76%956W / 302L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$4,454now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$59
14 days+$121
30 days+$460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% −$1,167
world 23% −$998
other 21% −$2,319
tech 16% −$1,234
finance 3% +$189
politics 1% +$214
sports 1% +$115
weather 0% +$17
economics 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -8.5% -17.2% 81% 11% -7.4%
≤30d 146 -1.1% -10.5% 80% 13% -6.2%
≤90d 759 -13.4% -21.6% 67% 17% -14.3%
all 1258 -8.6% -17.3% 76% 13% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 13% -11.3%
10% -25.3% 5% -19.8%
15% -32.5% 4% -27.6%
20% -39.1% 4% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$64 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$4,454
Realized−$4,724
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses956 / 302
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions42
Markets (closed)1258 / 1300
History coverage159d ⚠
Avg bet$201
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 1258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $395 $395 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $240 $240 −$0 (-0%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $231 $231 +$1 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $213 $226 +$14 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $196 $197 +$1 (+0%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in June? No 99¢ 98¢ $197 $197 −$1 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $192 $196 +$4 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in June? No 94¢ 97¢ $189 $195 +$6 (+3%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $191 $193 +$2 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in June? No 88¢ 93¢ $148 $156 +$8 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $146 $146 −$0 (-0%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June? No 92¢ 96¢ $138 $144 +$6 (+5%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $430 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $139 $144 +$5 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 94¢ 90¢ $141 $136 −$5 (-4%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $126 $128 +$2 (+2%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? No 89¢ 96¢ $112 $121 +$10 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? No 93¢ 80¢ $116 $99 −$17 (-14%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $96 $99 +$4 (+4%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $420 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $96 $98 +$2 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $91 $98 +$7 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $93 $92 −$2 (-2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 96¢ 86¢ $96 $86 −$10 (-11%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 92¢ 78¢ $92 $78 −$14 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 23 $95 +$4 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 23 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? Jun 22 $170 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $67 +$1 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? Jun 22 $145 +$9 +6%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? Jun 22 $133 +$24 +18%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? Jun 22 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $440 in June? Jun 21 $104 +$14 +13%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June? Jun 21 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $94 +$5 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $106 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $195 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $25 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June? Jun 17 $124 +$5 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? Jun 17 $185 +$5 +3%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in June? Jun 17 $190 +$8 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 16 $96 +$3 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $96 +$3 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $104 −$19 -18%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $42 +$7 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 15 $96 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 15 $37 +$10 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 15 $97 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $93 +$6 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 14 $187 +$11 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 14 $192 +$6 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 14 $492 +$4 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $15 +$35 +244%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 13 $138 +$10 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 11 $192 +$6 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Jun 11 $192 +$6 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 11 $210 +$25 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 11 $11 −$2 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 11 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 09 $43 +$5 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 09 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $230 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $96 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in June? BUY No 99¢ $198 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $24 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? SELL No 100¢ $50 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 99¢ $96 2h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? SELL No 99¢ $49 10h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? SELL No 100¢ $174 11h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $69 13h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June? BUY No 98¢ $98 20h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 21h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 21h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 23h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 23h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 23h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? SELL No 99¢ $153 23h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 98¢ $49 24h
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in June 2026? BUY No 88¢ $44 24h
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 24h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $91 24h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 24h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $108 24h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $108 24h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $67 24h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $93 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $48 25h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 25h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June? BUY No 96¢ $39 25h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? BUY No 95¢ $23 25h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? SELL No 98¢ $49 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,453.54 · official $4,453.54 (match) · 3500 history records