Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B7 0xb763…81c6 other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 430d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 35L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% $0
other 25% +$1
politics 16% +$2
sports 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 +3.2% -6.7% 43% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 23 -1.4% -10.8% 43% 4% -9.5%
all 62 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 5% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

430d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage430d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $86 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +72%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $59 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $48 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $22 −$2 -7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $28 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $28 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $45 +$2 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $21 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $31 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $59 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $28 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will Haas be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Holger Rune win the 2025 French Open? May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 27 $16 $0 -3%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? May 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108000 and $110000 on May 16? May 15 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 14 $21 $0 -1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Po May 12 $21 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $1 $0 -22%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April? May 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 11 $1 $0 +20%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 10 $1 $0 -18%
Starmer out before July? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $31 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $31 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $31 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $31 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $29 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $29 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $31 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $31 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $11 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $17 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $31 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $31 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $11 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $17 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $0 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $28 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $21 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $7 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 203 history records