Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B7 0xb75e…c6fe crypto 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-14%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate36%38W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$76
sports 10% +$7
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 106 -29.4% -36.1% 36% 26% -23.3%
all 106 -29.4% -36.1% 36% 26% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.1% 26% -23.3%
10% -42.2% 21% -30.6%
15% -47.8% 14% -37.3%
20% -52.9% 11% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses38 / 68
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 105
History coverage49d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 10 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 09 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 07 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 07 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 07 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 07 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 07 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 07 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 01 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 01 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 30 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 30 $12 −$9 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 30 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 30 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 30 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 30 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 30 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 30 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 30 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 30 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 30 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 30 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 30 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 30 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 30 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 30 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 30 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.89 · official $10.89 (match) · 483 history records