Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:05:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb75e…de15 sports 131 markets active 6d ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%25W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% $0
politics 26% −$1
other 18% +$1
crypto 13% −$1
economics 6% +$1
culture 5% −$2
tech 3% −$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
all 131 -0.0% -9.5% 19% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses25 / 106
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)131 / 131
History coverage148d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 131 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 11 $54 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $61 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $58 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 01 $69 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 01 $179 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 27 $3 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 27 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 27 $21 −$1 -6%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 27 $2 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 27 $262 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 27 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 27 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 26 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 26 $63 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 26 $55 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 26 $60 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 26 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $63 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 26 $66 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $82 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $134 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 15 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $85 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $130 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $65 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 09 $70 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 09 $155 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 09 $81 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Feb 09 $65 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 09 $78 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 09 $68 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 06 $71 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 06 $21 −$2 -7%
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Feb 06 $23 +$2 +10%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 04 $115 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? SELL No 96¢ $54 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY No 96¢ $54 6d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 18d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $61 19d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $58 30d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $58 32d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $6 108d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $57 108d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $6 109d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 97¢ $3 109d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 97¢ $3 109d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 109d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $57 109d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $2 110d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $2 110d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 110d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $2 110d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $2 110d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 110d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $59 110d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $59 110d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 110d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 110d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $62 110d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $62 110d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $63 110d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $64 110d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $55 110d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $55 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 514 history records