Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:11:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B7 0xb75b…e377 crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$55 (-34%) realized −$55 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip

Net edge-80%after slip

Net WR9%break-even

Win rate9%1W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day35.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +9%

net ROI/market (all)-76.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-73.7%	-76.2%	9%	9%	-47.0%
≤30d	11	-73.7%	-76.2%	9%	9%	-47.0%
≤90d	11	-73.7%	-76.2%	9%	9%	-47.0%
all	11	-73.7%	-76.2%	9%	9%	-47.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover35.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-76.2%	9%	-47.0%
10% ← realistic here	-78.5%	9%	-52.0%
15%	-80.6%	9%	-56.7%
20%	-82.5%	9%	-60.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -74% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$60 vs −$12 · ×4.81 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.48 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$55

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)9%

Wins / losses1 / 10

Open positions0

Markets (closed)11 / 11

History coverage1d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day35.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 11 Trades

no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 18	$8	−$8	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 18	$32	+$60	+189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 18	$30	−$29	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 18	$41	−$39	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 18	$11	−$10	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 18	$11	−$10	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 18	$8	−$8	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$35	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$22	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$32	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$30	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$41	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$2	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records