Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb758…dd73 sports 637 markets active 2h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,336 (-4%) realized −$3,153 · open −$183
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%221W / 397L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$379est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$812now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$899
7 days+$1,009
14 days−$1,836
30 days−$3,885
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$3,166
crypto 33% −$1,601
other 17% +$411
culture 3% −$111
world 0% +$155
economics 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +88.5% +70.5% 44% 44% +9.3%
≤30d 141 +11.7% +1.1% 35% 35% -32.1%
≤90d 516 -33.7% -40.1% 26% 25% -31.0%
all 618 -11.9% -20.3% 36% 35% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 35% -14.0%
10% -28.0% 33% -22.3%
15% -34.9% 31% -29.8%
20% -41.3% 27% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$115 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$812
Realized−$3,153
Unrealized−$183
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses221 / 397
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$379
Open positions9
Markets (closed)618 / 637
History coverage280d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 618 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $510 $387 −$123 (-24%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? Yes 8¢ 29¢ $42 $143 +$101 (+243%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 64¢ 66¢ $128 $133 +$5 (+4%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? No 3¢ 1¢ $201 $41 −$160 (-79%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $31 $26 −$5 (-17%)
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 33¢ 37¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-5%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? No 12¢ 5¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 175 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $136 +$117 +86%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $310 −$306 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $126 −$123 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $126 +$126 +100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $99 +$156 +158%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $392 −$392 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? Jun 25 $19 +$462 +2445%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $21 +$478 +2279%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $142 +$108 +76%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $29 +$73 +250%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $115 −$13 -11%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 24 $73 −$71 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $63 −$63 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $43 −$43 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $54 −$53 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $116 −$114 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $258 +$250 +97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? Jun 24 $195 +$305 +156%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 22-28? Jun 24 $341 +$171 +50%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $80 +$170 +212%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Jun 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $75 +$139 +185%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $138 −$138 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $108 −$108 -100%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 21 $135 +$115 +85%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $23 +$85 +365%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $43 +$58 +134%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $39 +$18 +46%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $18 +$20 +112%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $58 −$57 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $37 −$36 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $99 −$98 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 19 $113 +$49 +43%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $106 −$104 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $152 +$131 +86%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $139 −$137 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $41 +$163 +394%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 3¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 3¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 3¢ $158 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 3¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 3¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY No 12¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 3¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY No 12¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 3¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 3¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $32 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $505 2h
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 6¢ $32 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 9¢ $37 5h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 5h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 60¢ $154 5h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 61¢ $156 5h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $126 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 53¢ $136 5h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $122 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 17¢ $43 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $343 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $499 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $75 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 38¢ $99 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $811.82 · official $778.89 · 3214 history records