Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:06:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb758…4699 crypto 335 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,434 (-11%) realized −$3,453 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%176W / 158L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day34.2pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$155
7 days−$1,102
14 days−$2,806
30 days−$4,380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$2,755
sports 13% −$1,606
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -3.6% -12.8% 59% 49% -28.0%
≤30d 334 -12.5% -20.8% 53% 42% -21.6%
≤90d 334 -12.5% -20.8% 53% 42% -21.6%
all 334 -12.5% -20.8% 53% 42% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 42% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 37% -29.1%
15% -35.3% 30% -35.9%
20% -41.7% 22% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$69 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$3,453
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses176 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions1
Markets (closed)334 / 335
History coverage23d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day34.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 35¢ 58¢ $28 $47 +$19 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $109 −$92 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$40 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$26 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $121 −$119 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $63 +$58 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$30 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $120 −$116 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $108 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $88 +$21 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $65 +$22 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $156 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $97 +$59 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$48 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$15 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$22 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +89%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $114 −$64 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$18 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $70 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $223 −$154 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $330 +$67 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $89 +$69 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $88 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$38 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $157 −$82 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $87 +$55 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $361 −$277 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $632 +$92 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $198 +$73 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $157 −$50 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $135 +$70 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $106 +$29 +28%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $775 −$775 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$5 +181%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $30 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $17 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $16 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $17 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $109 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $101 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $102 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $80 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $40 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $32 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $34 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $120 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $108 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $109 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $88 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $65 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $49 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $6 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.38 · official $27.95 · 904 history records