Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B7 0xb755…b009 crypto 253 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$409 (+1%) realized +$449 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%70W / 181L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day54.6pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3,680now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$303
7 days+$404
14 days+$45
30 days−$521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$755
other 13% +$209
tech 3% +$10
sports 3% +$58
world 2% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +99.1% +80.2% 73% 20% -5.9%
≤30d 251 -22.9% -30.3% 28% 3% -10.0%
≤90d 251 -22.9% -30.3% 28% 3% -10.0%
all 251 -22.9% -30.3% 28% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.3% 3% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -37.0% 3% -18.6%
15% -43.0% 3% -26.5%
20% -48.6% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -33% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$22 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$3,680
Realized+$449
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses70 / 181
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)251 / 253
History coverage20d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day54.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $3,000 $2,980 −$20 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $720 $700 −$20 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $855 −$832 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,925 +$1,088 +37%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $63 +$1,045 +1666%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,002 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +68%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,471 +$143 +6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $145 −$114 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2,563 +$24 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $2,538 +$24 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $2,514 +$24 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $2,155 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $2,135 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $2,318 −$184 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $1,572 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $584 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $579 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $575 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $542 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $199 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 05 $200 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 05 $1,091 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 04 $942 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 04 $544 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 04 $399 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 04 $687 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 04 $1,050 +$24 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 04 $1,209 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 04 $601 −$7 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 04 $777 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 04 $685 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 04 $298 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 04 $986 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 04 $122 +$50 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 04 $403 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 04 $100 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 04 $291 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 04 $298 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 04 $431 +$36 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 04 $291 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 04 $389 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 04 $497 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 03 $298 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 03 $100 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $246 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $246 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $246 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $4,014 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 5h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $266 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $908 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,108 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $63 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,002 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $6 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $9 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 46h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $282 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,009 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $307 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,009 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,680.26 · official $3,680.26 (match) · 1462 history records