Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:12:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B7 0xb755…dfcc other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$96 (+16%) realized +$96 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip

Net edge+22%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$84per market

Trades / day2.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+22.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+35.3%	+22.5%	67%	67%	+13.8%
≤30d	6	+35.3%	+22.5%	67%	67%	+13.8%
≤90d	6	+35.3%	+22.5%	67%	67%	+13.8%
all	6	+35.3%	+22.5%	67%	67%	+13.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+22.5%	67%	+13.8%
10%	+10.7%	50%	+3.0%
15%	+0.0%	33%	-7.0%
20%	-9.8%	17%	-16.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +35% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$36 vs −$2 · ×15.8 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×31.6 per $1 lost it wins $31.6

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized+$96

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage4d

Avg bet$84

Trades / day2.2

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	Over	61¢	62¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$101	−$4	-4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 23	$140	+$17	+12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$101	+$48	+48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$51	+$68	+134%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 23	$40	+$9	+23%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$100	−$1	-1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	61¢	$51	12m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	65¢	$97	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$51	20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$140	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	81¢	$40	3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	86¢	$99	4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	86¢	$100	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.41 · official $50.41 (match) · 13 history records