Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:49:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb74f…7f47 sports 9 markets active 7h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$166 (+23%) realized +$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$321
sports 36% −$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +9.5% -0.9% 56% 56% +10.6%
≤30d 9 +9.5% -0.9% 56% 56% +10.6%
≤90d 9 +9.5% -0.9% 56% 56% +10.6%
all 9 +9.5% -0.9% 56% 56% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 56% +10.6%
10% -10.4% 56% +0.0%
15% -19.0% 56% -9.7%
20% -27.0% 44% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$54 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $171 +$65 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $162 +$114 +70%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $51 +$60 +119%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $61 −$60 -99%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $81 +$82 +101%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $49 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $36 +$56 +158%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $70 −$69 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $171 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 32h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $61 33h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $49 36h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $81 37h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 32¢ $20 40h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $41 40h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 40¢ $50 40h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 17¢ $5 41h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 48¢ $30 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records