Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb749…cd19 crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,605 (-5%) realized −$1,604 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%17W / 38L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$621per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days−$4,053
14 days−$3,120
30 days−$2,936
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 99% −$2,916
crypto 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -32.3% -38.8% 29% 14% -37.9%
≤30d 46 -38.1% -44.0% 33% 28% -17.9%
≤90d 55 -29.1% -35.9% 31% 27% -17.9%
all 55 -29.1% -35.9% 31% 27% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.9% 27% -17.9%
10% -42.0% 20% -25.7%
15% -47.6% 15% -32.9%
20% -52.7% 15% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$165 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,604
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses17 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage31d
Avg bet$621
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $1,731 +$165 +10%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $900 −$314 -35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,177 +$740 +63%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $375 −$375 -100%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 14 $470 −$95 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $7,258 −$3,176 -44%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2,909 −$2 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $500 −$29 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 07 $3,170 −$71 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $5,852 +$1,038 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 01 $3,719 −$1,121 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,550 +$723 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $936 +$237 +25%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $1,000 +$329 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,004 +$37 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 21 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 20 $16 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 20 $19 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 20 $21 +$23 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 20 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 20 $5 +$13 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 20 $18 +$13 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 20 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 20 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 20 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 76¢ $1,896 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,130 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 54¢ $601 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 36¢ $586 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 56¢ $900 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $1,000 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 94¢ $1,917 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 73¢ $375 3d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL Yes 30¢ $375 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 58¢ $1,177 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $1,177 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 0¢ $1 9d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 37¢ $470 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $471 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 0¢ $1 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 0¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $4,160 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 93¢ $4,160 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,773 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 63¢ $134 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $2,905 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 70¢ $3,098 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 88¢ $3,099 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 90¢ $3,170 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 99¢ $3,171 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 81¢ $2,598 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $2,598 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $3,719 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 88¢ $3,719 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.25 · official $1.25 (match) · 108 history records