Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:00:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B7
0xb747…b050
politics · 117 markets active 164d ago
0.0score
+$194,365 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$194,365 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 0 History 121 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22,933
7 days−$22,933
14 days−$22,933
30 days−$22,933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SP win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? Yes 52¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island? No 61¢ $656 $0 −$656 (-100%)
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in October 2025 (LS)? No 25¢ $1,078 $0 −$1,078 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025? No 61¢ $22,581 $0 −$22,581 (-100%)
Will the Blue Bloc win by 1–4 seats? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? No 49¢ $3,422 $0 −$3,422 (-100%)
Will PAS win by between 8-12% of the vote? Yes 20¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18? Yes 48¢ $235 $0 −$235 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025? No 24¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Will PAS win by greater than >16% of the vote? No 70¢ $2,589 $0 −$2,589 (-100%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? No 77¢ $4,507 $0 −$4,507 (-100%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win Staten Island in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election? Yes $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Green Party (MDG) wins 4% or more of vote in Norwegian election? No 16¢ $625 $0 −$625 (-100%)
Will Ap win the second most seats in the Norway election? Yes 17¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Pakistan" during Zelensky events on August 18? No 63¢ $258 $0 −$258 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18? No 66¢ $10,727 $0 −$10,727 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025? No 37¢ $2,327 $0 −$2,327 (-100%)
Will Medina and Quiroga advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff? Yes 85¢ $8,500 $0 −$8,500 (-100%)
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Yes 23¢ $1,321 $0 −$1,321 (-100%)
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? Yes $2,760 $0 −$2,760 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Suit" during Zelensky events on August 18? Yes 36¢ $1,513 $0 −$1,513 (-100%)
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Yes 20¢ $4,541 $0 −$4,541 (-100%)
Will Andrew Cuomo get between 30% and 35% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election? Yes 24¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Yes 36¢ $1,955 $0 −$1,955 (-100%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Yes $2,145 $0 −$2,145 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025? Jun 12 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo’s vote share be less than 35% in the first round of Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? Jun 12 $14,817 −$14,932 -101%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Jun 12 $7,886 −$7,886 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2025? Dec 29 $2,360 +$4,651 +197%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? Dec 25 $97 +$13,852 +14290%
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2025? Dec 23 $61 +$24 +40%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 21 $10,214 −$8,721 -85%
US forces in Venezuela by December 31? Dec 17 $5,415 −$4,119 -76%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 17 $3,503 −$2,274 -65%
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025? Dec 12 $3,059 +$9,110 +298%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? Dec 10 $2,786 −$1,193 -43%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 09 $5,813 +$16,553 +285%
Will Zohran Mamdani win 4 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral G Dec 03 $65 +$35 +54%
Will Zohran Mamdani win The Bronx in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Ge Dec 03 $1,022 +$412 +40%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%? Nov 28 $16,396 −$3,790 -23%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Nov 23 $11,510 −$4,403 -38%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Septe Nov 22 $12 +$1 +8%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in September 2025 Nov 22 $10,158 +$6,407 +63%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Septe Nov 22 $3,047 +$805 +26%
2025 September third hottest on record? Nov 22 $4,837 +$5,402 +112%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 22 $10,799 +$4,779 +44%
2025 September second hottest on record? Nov 22 $8,582 +$20,821 +243%
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands Nov 21 $1,054 −$966 -92%
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? Nov 05 $4,175 +$1,030 +25%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $8,278 +$3,791 +46%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $50,050 +$4,652 +9%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Nov 05 $28,500 +$87 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Nov 03 $4,507 −$4,507 -100%
Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary e Nov 03 $311 +$32 +10%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Nov 03 $2,000 −$1,000 -50%
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the third most s Nov 03 $797 +$184 +23%
Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary el Nov 03 $6,121 +$4,181 +68%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Nov 03 $4,693 −$2,474 -53%
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC ma Nov 02 $556 −$556 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Oct 31 $15,424 −$5,230 -34%
Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island? Oct 28 $656 −$656 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 25 $7,188 −$1,094 -15%
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani? Oct 25 $430 +$94 +22%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Oct 21 $12,390 +$810 +6%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 30% and 35%? Oct 20 $20,832 −$20,273 -97%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by less than 30%? Oct 20 $1,921 −$1,785 -93%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Oct 15 $308 −$308 -100%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in October 2025 ( Oct 12 $1,078 −$1,078 -100%
Will October 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record? Oct 11 $569 −$59 -10%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $94,000 +$9,504 +10%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $394,520 +$152,857 +39%
Will SPD get between 10% and 13% of the vote in the Czech election? Oct 05 $167 +$13 +8%
Will ANO get between 33% and 36% of the vote in the Czech election? Oct 05 $939 +$107 +11%
Will ANO get more than 36% of the vote in the Czech election? Oct 05 $2,777 +$173 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
culture 49% +$151,072
politics 22% −$11,475
other 22% +$27,296
weather 4% +$35,925
crypto 2% −$1,604
world 1% +$18,655
sports 0% −$2,572
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $366 163d
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? SELL No 99¢ $0 163d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $15 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $31 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $13 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $25 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $14 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $5 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $14 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $11 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $9 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $13 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $6 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $747 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $22 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $17 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $13 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $13 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $8 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $9 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $10 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $2 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $9 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $9 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $25 164d
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $17 164d
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? SELL No 99¢ $54,803 164d
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? SELL No 99¢ $989 164d
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? SELL No 99¢ $3 164d
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? SELL No 99¢ $45 164d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 121 +4.7% -5.2% 43% 35% +6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 35% +6.5%
10% -14.3% 31% -3.7%
15% ← realistic here -22.6% 28% -13.0%
20% -30.2% 20% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records