Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:30:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B7 0xb745…f019 crypto 743 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$55 (-1%) realized −$44 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%355W / 386L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days+$0
14 days+$65
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 -16.2% -24.2% 43% 43% -9.5%
≤30d 656 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 48% -13.3%
≤90d 741 -7.0% -15.9% 48% 48% -11.4%
all 741 -7.0% -15.9% 48% 48% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 48% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 48% -19.8%
15% -31.3% 48% -27.6%
20% -38.0% 48% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses355 / 386
Open positions2
Markets (closed)741 / 743
History coverage35d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 741 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Up 52¢ 56¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 383 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$16 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $88 +$60 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$8 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$11 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $24 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $88 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.63 · official $7.21 (match) · 1209 history records