Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B7 0xb743…f1fb crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$131 (-16%) realized −$117 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$30
world 8% −$63
other 4% −$14
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -2.8% -12.0% 59% 59% -13.3%
≤30d 17 -2.8% -12.0% 59% 59% -13.3%
≤90d 18 -8.2% -16.9% 56% 56% -20.3%
all 18 -8.2% -16.9% 56% 56% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 56% -20.3%
10% -24.9% 56% -27.9%
15% -32.1% 39% -34.9%
20% -38.8% 28% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$44 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$117
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage43d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $33 $18 −$14 (-44%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $82 −$79 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 28 $76 +$28 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 28 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$73 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $6 +$9 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$16 +62%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $65 −$63 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 30h
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 42d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 42d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $34 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.00 · official $26.02 (match) · 44 history records