Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:03:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb743…7107 crypto 287 markets active 5h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-11%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%107W / 174L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$79
sports 26% +$46
other 25% −$26
world 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +23.9% +12.1% 44% 44% -2.0%
≤30d 70 +23.9% +12.1% 44% 44% -2.0%
≤90d 75 +15.7% +4.7% 41% 41% -6.6%
all 281 -5.2% -14.2% 38% 36% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 36% -20.2%
10% -22.4% 35% -27.8%
15% -29.9% 33% -34.8%
20% -36.8% 31% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses107 / 174
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)281 / 287
History coverage121d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +109%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +140%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +159%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +106%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +66%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +510%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +418%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 5¢ $2 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 22¢ $1 6h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will Portugal BUY 49¢ $1 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $1 21h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 23h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1 35h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 35h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 35h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 45¢ $2 42h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 1¢ $1 44h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 1¢ $1 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 45h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 45h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 46h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 46h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 47h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 47h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 47h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.88 · official $7.38 · 668 history records