Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:20:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B7 0xb73b…c188 world 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$507 (-8%) realized −$507 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$100
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$525
world 36% +$5
politics 7% +$3
other 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -11.1% -19.6% 0% 0% -19.6%
≤30d 4 -28.7% -35.5% 0% 0% -50.5%
≤90d 19 -10.7% -19.2% 58% 0% -16.7%
all 19 -10.7% -19.2% 58% 0% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 0% -16.7%
10% -26.9% 0% -24.6%
15% -34.0% 0% -31.9%
20% -40.4% 0% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$117 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$507
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage75d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? Yes $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$8 -11%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $92 −$92 -100%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $3 $0 -4%
Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5) May 17 $453 +$4 +1%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? May 16 $442 +$3 +1%
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) May 15 $484 −$484 -100%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? May 15 $479 +$1 +0%
Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5) May 15 $474 +$6 +1%
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? May 14 $474 $0 +0%
Spread: Haras El Hodood SC (-2.5) May 14 $469 +$6 +1%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? May 13 $461 +$10 +2%
Spread: Al Taawoun Saudi Club (-2.5) May 13 $451 +$9 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 11 $447 +$3 +1%
Spread: Torino FC (-1.5) Apr 27 $425 +$10 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Apr 26 $427 $0 +0%
Spread: Clermont Foot 63 (-2.5) Apr 25 $394 +$16 +4%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 24 $428 $0 +0%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 10 $23 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? BUY Yes $25 1h
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes $35 1h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes $33 1h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes $39 3h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes $37 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over $48 11d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over $44 11d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL Yes $26 11d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL Yes $24 11d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY Yes $24 11d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY Yes $26 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $3 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $3 28d
Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5) BUY FC Bayern München 99¢ $453 38d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $445 38d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $442 38d
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) BUY Adelaide United FC 97¢ $484 38d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $480 38d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $479 39d
Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5) BUY Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club 99¢ $474 40d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $196 40d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $279 40d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $230 40d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $244 40d
Spread: Haras El Hodood SC (-2.5) BUY El Mokawloon El Arab SC 99¢ $469 41d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $470 41d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $461 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.31 · official $50.31 (match) · 61 history records