trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? | Yes | 47¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $2 | +$1 (+113%) |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | Yes | 8¢ | 3¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-60%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Iran closes its airspace by July 31? | No | 17¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 12 | $8 | −$1 | -8% |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$1 | +110% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? | Jun 11 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | -33% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 11 | $11 | $0 | -3% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $5 | −$2 | -33% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | Jun 09 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | Jun 08 | $3 | $0 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 08 | $4 | $0 | +3% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Jun 08 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 08 | $2 | +$2 | +100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | Jun 08 | $1 | $0 | -13% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 08 | $10 | −$1 | -11% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 08 | $3 | $0 | +13% |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | Jun 08 | $7 | −$1 | -12% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 08 | $7 | −$1 | -14% |
| Iran closes its airspace by July 31? | Jun 07 | $2 | −$1 | -53% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 07 | $5 | −$1 | -20% |
| Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 06 | $3 | $0 | -8% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $2 | $0 | +7% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Jun 06 | $41 | −$1 | -2% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Jun 04 | $22 | $0 | -2% |
| Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? | Jun 03 | $10 | −$1 | -14% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 24 | -9.5% | -18.1% | 29% | 12% | -18.1% |
| ≤30d | 26 | -9.3% | -18.0% | 27% | 12% | -17.3% |
| ≤90d | 26 | -9.3% | -18.0% | 27% | 12% | -17.3% |
| all | 26 | -9.3% | -18.0% | 27% | 12% | -17.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -18.0% | 12% | -17.3% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -25.8% | 8% | -25.2% |
| 15% | -33.0% | 8% | -32.5% |
| 20% | -39.5% | 8% | -39.1% |