Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb738…bc0c crypto 393 markets active 7d ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$101 (-9%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%174W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$21
14 days−$54
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -34.2% -40.4% 47% 20% -29.1%
≤30d 320 -15.2% -23.3% 45% 39% -21.1%
≤90d 393 -11.7% -20.1% 44% 38% -20.1%
all 393 -11.7% -20.1% 44% 38% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 38% -20.1%
10% -27.7% 35% -27.8%
15% -34.7% 33% -34.7%
20% -41.1% 31% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses174 / 219
Open positions0
Markets (closed)393 / 393
History coverage40d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 393 Trades
no open positions (154 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 682 history records