Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:27:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb732…c179 politics 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate11%7W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$5
sports 30% −$3
other 10% −$2
crypto 6% $0
culture 6% $0
world 4% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% −$4
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 62 -11.5% -19.9% 11% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 2% -9.8%
10% -27.6% 2% -18.4%
15% -34.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -41.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses7 / 55
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage243d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $99 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $94 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $97 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $96 −$1 -1%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $99 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 19 $95 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 06 $2 −$1 -50%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 05 $96 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $100 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 29 $100 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 25 $102 $0 +0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 23 $299 $0 -0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 22 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $101 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $102 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 11 $98 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $101 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 06 $101 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 06 $99 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 05 $101 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $103 $0 -0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $1 $0 +33%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $103 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 29 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $207 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 27 $103 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 26 $1 $0 -25%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $102 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $105 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 21 $105 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 15 $106 $0 +0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 08 $102 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 07 $1 $0 -17%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 06 $1 $0 -50%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 03 $205 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 02 $2 $0 -11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 01 $2 $0 -6%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 24 $105 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 23 $107 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $98 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 43h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 43h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $94 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $94 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $97 27d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $96 111d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $96 116d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $99 119d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $99 125d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $95 129d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $95 141d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 141d
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 143d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 143d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $96 143d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $96 147d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 148d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 148d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 150d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $100 150d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $100 151d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $100 152d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $100 153d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $102 154d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $102 155d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $99 156d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $99 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.13 · official $98.13 (match) · 209 history records