Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:17:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B7 0xb731…a8fa other 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$145 (+13%) realized +$118 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%38W / 42L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$48
world 28% +$56
tech 25% +$51
sports 5% $0
crypto 4% +$7
politics 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -40.2% -45.9% 31% 31% -0.5%
≤30d 15 -43.8% -49.2% 27% 27% -6.1%
≤90d 22 -32.3% -38.7% 32% 27% -8.5%
all 80 +12.1% +1.4% 48% 40% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 40% +3.7%
10% -8.3% 32% -6.2%
15% -17.2% 25% -15.3%
20% -25.3% 15% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized+$118
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses38 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)80 / 87
History coverage141d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 82¢ 99¢ $105 $126 +$21 (+20%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $28 $34 +$6 (+22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 26¢ 34¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $97 −$2 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 22 $66 +$32 +48%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 21 $2 −$2 -86%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 21 $5 −$3 -54%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $17 +$2 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$6 +48%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 29 $20 −$7 -35%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 08 $56 −$13 -23%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $9 +$7 +73%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Mar 29 $10 −$3 -31%
Valorant: Mandatory vs Enterprise Esports (BO5) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs Mar 29 $31 $0 +1%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $13 −$1 -6%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 23 $5 −$1 -14%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Mar 23 $52 −$2 -3%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 23 $35 −$2 -5%
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $23 −$7 -32%
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? Mar 23 $5 +$7 +142%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Mar 23 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 23 $23 +$4 +17%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 18 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28? Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 08 $20 −$6 -30%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 06 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Mar 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Mar 04 $14 +$7 +49%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $4 +$49 +1233%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $11 +$31 +282%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Feb 28 $14 +$17 +121%
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $10 +$4 +45%
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 28 $10 $0 +5%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 20 Feb 27 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $28 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $27 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $96 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $97 2h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $98 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 22h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 22h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 22h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL Yes 11¢ $2 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 59¢ $20 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $17 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $12 47h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 75¢ $11 47h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 88¢ $13 24d
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 24d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 87¢ $43 75d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 52¢ $43 75d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 68¢ $56 82d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $66 83d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 79¢ $50 83d
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 85d
Valorant: Mandatory vs Enterprise Esports (BO5) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs SELL Enterprise Esports 76¢ $23 85d
Valorant: Mandatory vs Enterprise Esports (BO5) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs SELL Mandatory 29¢ $9 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.63 · official $233.78 (match) · 197 history records