Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:34:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B7 0xb731…5797 sports 274 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$949 (+8%) realized +$979 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%132W / 127L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$293
14 days+$185
30 days+$345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$1,236
sports 12% +$95
other 11% −$274
finance 3% −$7
politics 2% −$110
crypto 1% −$22
weather 0% −$35
culture 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +33.4% +20.7% 48% 44% -30.1%
≤30d 130 +15.6% +4.6% 53% 51% -4.5%
≤90d 259 +2.1% -7.7% 51% 49% -1.1%
all 259 +2.1% -7.7% 51% 49% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 49% -1.1%
10% -16.5% 45% -10.5%
15% -24.6% 37% -19.2%
20% -32.0% 30% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$16 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$979
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses132 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions15
Markets (closed)259 / 274
History coverage63d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 53¢ 57¢ $48 $52 +$4 (+9%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Yes 25¢ 35¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+39%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-33%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 31¢ 25¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 8¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-78%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$22 +215%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $15 +$27 +175%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $30 −$3 -10%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$15 +294%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -95%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $20 −$12 -61%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $151 −$9 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $363 −$209 -58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$11 +358%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$9 +152%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -61%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $66 −$12 -19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 12 $36 −$20 -56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $334 −$15 -5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $18 +$10 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$11 +57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 11 $164 −$30 -18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$3 +29%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $50 −$14 -29%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 11 $157 −$30 -19%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$2 -15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 10 $10 $0 -2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $20 −$2 -11%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 +$9 +89%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 09 $10 −$2 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $200 −$36 -18%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $10 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 +$8 +79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $652 +$21 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $190 −$90 -47%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $101 +$20 +20%
Megaquake by June 30? Jun 09 $288 −$206 -72%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 +$14 +69%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $550 −$290 -53%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $32 1h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $32 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $16 7h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $38 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $14 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $10 22h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $12 28h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $10 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 71¢ $27 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 85¢ $20 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL No 2¢ $1 3d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $23 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $30 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 13¢ $8 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $50 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 24¢ $49 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $24 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? SELL Yes 55¢ $41 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $7 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 33¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 49¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $5 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.58 · official $136.59 (match) · 669 history records