Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:17:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B7 0xb72d…f11e other 389 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$938 (+11%) realized +$918 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%112W / 269L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$648now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$875
7 days+$789
14 days+$764
30 days+$607
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$348
crypto 26% −$156
sports 21% +$702
world 1% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +93.4% +75.0% 34% 32% +26.3%
≤30d 136 +30.9% +18.4% 22% 21% +5.6%
≤90d 381 +4.8% -5.2% 29% 28% -0.3%
all 381 +4.8% -5.2% 29% 28% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 28% -0.3%
10% -14.3% 27% -9.9%
15% -22.6% 25% -18.6%
20% -30.2% 22% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$15 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$648
Realized+$918
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses112 / 269
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions8
Markets (closed)381 / 389
History coverage78d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 381 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $90 $141 +$51 (+57%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $125 $136 +$11 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $150 $126 −$24 (-16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $125 $123 −$2 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-22%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $119 +$57 +48%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $18 +$207 +1116%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $122 +$171 +140%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $12 +$67 +543%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $183 +$217 +118%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 +$34 +118%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$115 +1115%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$67 +165%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $82 −$71 -86%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$87 +86%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $18 +$206 +1115%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$44 +43%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 +$156 +1519%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $69 +$77 +112%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 −$6 -6%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$81 +158%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $9 +$91 +980%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Bolivia 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 58m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $176 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $119 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $71 21h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 21h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $122 21h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $18 21h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 19¢ $30 22h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 24¢ $50 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $400 22h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 24h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 35h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 35h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $183 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 36h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 36h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $28 37h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $41 43h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 99¢ $0 43h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 5¢ $11 43h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 44h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 45h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 45h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 45h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $82 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $647.87 · official $648.23 (match) · 865 history records