Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B7 0xb72c…3acc other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$23 (+9%) realized +$29 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$8
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$37
politics 30% −$7
world 17% −$3
sports 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -2.2% -11.5% 25% 25% +15.2%
≤90d 13 -4.6% -13.7% 23% 15% +3.1%
all 13 -4.6% -13.7% 23% 15% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 15% +3.1%
10% -21.9% 15% -6.8%
15% -29.5% 15% -15.8%
20% -36.4% 15% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$3 · ×6.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage39d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $3 −$6 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 +$6 +82%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $8 −$2 -30%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $15 −$11 -72%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$50 +165%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $8 $0 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $10 −$2 -23%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 21 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Venezuela become 51st state? May 21 $1 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $1 $0 -8%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 21 $4 $0 +1%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 21 $68 −$4 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 9d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 21d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $38 21d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 25d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $8 25d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 36d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $3 36d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? SELL Yes $1 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $1 36d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 36d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? BUY Yes $1 36d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $4 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $1 36d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 21¢ $6 36d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $10 36d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $40 36d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 23¢ $7 36d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 77¢ $57 36d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 80¢ $60 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $4 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.21 · official $53.21 (match) · 58 history records