trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 8 | -2.2% | -11.5% | 25% | 25% | +15.2% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -4.6% | -13.7% | 23% | 15% | +3.1% |
| all | 13 | -4.6% | -13.7% | 23% | 15% | +3.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.7% | 15% | +3.1% |
| 10% | -21.9% | 15% | -6.8% |
| 15% | -29.5% | 15% | -15.8% |
| 20% | -36.4% | 15% | -24.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 15¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $9 | $3 | −$6 (-62%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $7 | +$6 | +82% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $8 | −$2 | -30% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 17 | $15 | −$11 | -72% |
| Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $31 | +$50 | +165% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 11 | $8 | $0 | -5% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 05 | $40 | −$2 | -6% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 01 | $10 | −$2 | -23% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 21 | $4 | −$1 | -20% |
| Will Venezuela become 51st state? | May 21 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 21 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | May 21 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | May 21 | $68 | −$4 | -6% |