Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:49:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B7 0xb72c…ded3 other 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate21%11W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$364per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$13
politics 21% −$13
other 7% −$6
culture 1% $0
sports 1% +$19
crypto 1% $0
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 +4.4% -5.6% 18% 6% -7.8%
≤90d 40 +3.9% -6.0% 22% 12% -8.9%
all 52 +2.8% -7.0% 21% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 10% -9.6%
10% -15.9% 10% -18.2%
15% -24.0% 10% -26.1%
20% -31.4% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses11 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage602d
Avg bet$364
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $11 +$8 +76%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $17 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $96 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $95 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $88 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $97 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 23 $94 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $87 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $88 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $187 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $97 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $93 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $48 +$2 +3%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 11 $10 +$5 +48%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 11 $10 +$8 +83%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 11 $11 +$9 +89%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $8 +$5 +59%
Blue Jackets vs. Islanders Apr 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $90 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 06 $13,518 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $258 $0 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $1,091 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 20m
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $3 6h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 23h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 24h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 46h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $60 3d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 9d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $11 10d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 12d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $12 13d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 15d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 15d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 19d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.73 · official $58.73 (match) · 289 history records