Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:43:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb72b…f4e0 sports 779 markets active 2h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$165,306 (-24%) realized −$163,849 · open −$1,457
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%311W / 458L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$882per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$2,861now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$855
7 days+$482
14 days+$482
30 days+$482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$154,514
other 23% −$10,444
politics 8% +$6,641
crypto 3% +$5,519
tech 2% −$4,059
world 2% −$3,194
culture 2% −$1,995
finance 1% −$1,825
economics 0% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.4% -31.6% 33% 33% -4.6%
≤30d 9 -24.4% -31.6% 33% 33% -4.6%
≤90d 9 -24.4% -31.6% 33% 33% -4.6%
all 769 -5.7% -14.7% 40% 38% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 38% -31.1%
10% -22.8% 37% -37.7%
15% -30.3% 36% -43.7%
20% -37.1% 33% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$700) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +32% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$668 vs −$809 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$2,861
Realized−$163,849
Unrealized−$1,457
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses311 / 458
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions6
Markets (closed)769 / 779
History coverage369d
Avg bet$882
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 769 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 41¢ 16¢ $2,000 $761 −$1,239 (-62%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 42¢ 42¢ $750 $759 +$9 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 56¢ 56¢ $750 $743 −$7 (-1%)
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $317 $505 +$188 (+59%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 23¢ $500 $87 −$413 (-83%)
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 10¢ 36¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+265%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $765 +$1,576 +206%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,669 +$1,036 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $989 −$967 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $513 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $511 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,032 +$2,285 +112%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $973 −$948 -98%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 11 $5,295 −$5,295 -100%
Spread: Packers (-1.5) Jan 11 $3,150 +$3,144 +100%
Oregon vs. Indiana Jan 10 $2,450 +$1,165 +48%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 09 $2,267 +$139 +6%
Spread: Miami (-3.5) Jan 08 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? Jan 08 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? Jan 08 $3,700 +$75 +2%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 mil Jan 06 $1,125 $0 +0%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Jan 05 $2,070 −$2,070 -100%
Maduro mugshot released by Monday? Jan 05 $1,200 +$380 +32%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 05 $262 −$262 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $26 in January? Jan 05 $2,700 +$300 +11%
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Jan 04 $500 +$347 +70%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jan 04 $500 +$409 +82%
Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5? Jan 03 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $400 −$142 -35%
Will Donald Trump say "Maduro" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lag Jan 03 $60 −$60 -100%
Ravens vs. Steelers Jan 02 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Georgia (-6.5) Jan 02 $1,000 +$887 +89%
Ole Miss vs. Georgia: 1H Moneyline Jan 01 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $300 −$300 -100%
Alabama vs. Indiana Jan 01 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Jan 01 $1,500 +$1,269 +85%
Spread: Ohio State (-9.5) Jan 01 $1,930 +$1,746 +90%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5 Dec 31 $250 −$250 -100%
O/U 43.5 Dec 31 $250 −$250 -100%
Falcons vs. Cardinals Dec 31 $250 −$250 -100%
Bengals vs. Dolphins Dec 31 $250 −$250 -100%
Mavericks vs. Warriors Dec 31 $250 −$250 -100%
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Dec 31 $500 −$500 -100%
Eagles vs. Bills Dec 31 $250 −$250 -100%
Texans vs. Chargers Dec 31 $1,250 +$400 +32%
Rams vs. Falcons Dec 31 $250 −$250 -100%
Broncos vs. Chiefs Dec 31 $250 −$250 -100%
Lions vs. Vikings Dec 31 $700 +$1,160 +166%
Ravens vs. Packers Dec 31 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 31 $750 −$750 -100%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? Dec 31 $500 −$500 -100%
Cowboys vs. Commanders Dec 31 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 31 $400 −$400 -100%
49ers vs. Colts Dec 31 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $511 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 23¢ $512 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 56¢ $760 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $763 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,523 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $2,341 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,669 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 12¢ $513 12h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $765 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $989 32h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-1 BUY $226 32h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $513 34h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY $360 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $511 39h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $508 39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,014 39h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 202 BUY $257 39h
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $9 2d
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $11 2d
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $20 2d
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,860.85 · official $2,860.85 (match) · 2493 history records