Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb72b…989a sports 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$99,608 (+24%) realized +$100,092 · open −$484
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%41W / 31L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$5,721per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$888est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$14,358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$575
7 days−$4,985
14 days−$1,176
30 days−$389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$99,680
other 20% +$9,261
sports 15% −$8,537
world 1% −$1,113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +1.6% -8.1% 55% 52% -17.8%
≤30d 70 +3.5% -6.3% 56% 49% -9.5%
≤90d 70 +3.5% -6.3% 56% 49% -9.5%
all 72 +4.6% -5.4% 57% 50% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 50% +13.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 47% +2.6%
15% -22.7% 42% -7.3%
20% -30.3% 28% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$2,509) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3,284 vs −$1,125 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.86 per $1 lost it wins $3.86
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$14,358
Realized+$100,092
Unrealized−$484
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses41 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$888
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage557d
Avg bet$5,721
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? No 85¢ 80¢ $11,915 $11,200 −$715 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 73¢ 79¢ $2,927 $3,158 +$231 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $607 +$410 +67%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $812 −$800 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,633 +$1,850 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,631 +$1,702 +65%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $2,427 +$1,446 +60%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,008 +$364 +36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $7,887 −$5,496 -70%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 26 $8,989 −$7,883 -88%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $497 −$239 -48%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $1,123 −$606 -54%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $446 −$438 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $4,058 −$979 -24%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 25 $1,021 −$78 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $810 +$593 +73%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $245 −$240 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $810 −$689 -85%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $1,015 +$985 +97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,011 −$690 -68%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $849 +$484 +57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,010 +$505 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $479 +$864 +180%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $5,543 +$98 +2%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $478 −$349 -73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $495 +$226 +46%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $377 −$370 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $692 −$321 -46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,018 +$1,482 +146%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,985 +$1,453 +73%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $2,509 +$727 +29%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $959 +$438 +46%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $492 −$484 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,012 −$670 -66%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $306 −$200 -65%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $508 +$628 +124%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $516 +$281 +55%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $82 −$80 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $1,514 −$1,500 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7,065 +$3,080 +44%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,646 +$3,695 +140%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,019 −$659 -33%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$214 +106%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $406 +$349 +86%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $605 +$206 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,012 +$683 +67%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,015 −$544 -54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5,967 +$3,549 +60%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,504 −$2,486 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 74¢ $752 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 73¢ $1,486 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 73¢ $181 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 73¢ $8 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 73¢ $29 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 73¢ $29 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 73¢ $4 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 73¢ $456 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 71¢ $36 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY No 85¢ $758 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY No 85¢ $859 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY No 85¢ $102 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $748 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $101 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $849 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 63¢ $617 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 63¢ $450 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 63¢ $331 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 62¢ $4 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 62¢ $8 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 62¢ $426 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 62¢ $3 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 62¢ $607 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 64¢ $625 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 62¢ $620 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 62¢ $620 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 62¢ $639 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 64¢ $655 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 63¢ $646 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY No 78¢ $317 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,357.89 · official $14,357.89 (match) · 436 history records