Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B7 0xb72b…9a79 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$706 (-6%) realized −$717 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,252per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$4,952now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$460
sports 5% −$458
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 44% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 44% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 44% -9.6%
all 9 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 44% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 44% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 33% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 33% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 22% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$458 vs −$368 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$4,952
Realized−$717
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1,252
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $2,000 $2,011 +$11 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,019 +$941 +47%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$33 +325%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6,100 +$731 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $222 −$220 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $224 −$220 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,121 −$929 -83%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $414 −$272 -66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$126 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,005 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 7h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $222 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $6,100 29h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 39¢ $224 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 12¢ $192 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $717 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Sweden 24¢ $142 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $202 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 67¢ $212 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,952.17 · official $4,952.17 (match) · 20 history records