Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb726…ceb4 crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 370d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$129 (-1%) realized −$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$142
politics 44% −$4
crypto 3% +$39
sports 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 20 -2.6% -11.9% 40% 10% -11.3%
all 45 -1.1% -10.6% 38% 4% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 4% -10.8%
10% -19.1% 4% -19.4%
15% -26.9% 4% -27.1%
20% -34.1% 4% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage370d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 05 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 18 $21 −$21 -98%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 April 13-19? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-18? May 07 $66 +$105 +158%
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Apr 17 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 17 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 April 6-12? Apr 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-18? Apr 17 $225 −$222 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 11? Apr 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 March 30-April 5? Apr 13 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 13 $43 +$39 +89%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 09 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $115 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on March 19? Apr 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 01 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $960 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 5-11? Mar 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Michel Bonnus be the next mayor of Toulon? Mar 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 29? Mar 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 19? Jan 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.50 on December 1? Dec 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Nov 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100,000 on October 23? Nov 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Sep 15 $4 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 in July? Aug 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 US Open? Aug 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Aug 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Jul 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 20 $343 $0 -0%
F1 season canceled or other team wins? Jun 20 $355 $0 -0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Jun 20 $350 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Jun 17 $333 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 17 $352 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 13 $350 $0 -0%
Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jun 13 $345 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $26 1h
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P BUY Jordan Leavitt 37¢ $26 12d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 31¢ $21 30d
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president SELL Yes 0¢ $1 62d
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $699 62d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 62d
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $700 62d
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president SELL No 100¢ $697 62d
Will XRP dip to $0.90 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $6 62d
Will XRP dip to $0.90 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $8 62d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $695 62d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $710 62d
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 38¢ $66 62d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $225 62d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $43 68d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $938 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 70d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 0¢ $4 70d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $10 70d
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $323 70d
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $626 70d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $7 70d
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $950 70d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $115 72d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 72d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $65 72d
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 78d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $959 78d
Will Solana dip to $30 March 30-April 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 78d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $960 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.20 · official $25.20 (match) · 114 history records