Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:28:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb725…d763 crypto 225 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-1%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%105W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$103
14 days−$93
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$142
sports 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -13.6% -21.8% 42% 42% -18.9%
≤30d 127 -1.0% -10.4% 53% 52% -8.4%
≤90d 225 -9.2% -17.9% 47% 46% -12.3%
all 225 -9.2% -17.9% 47% 46% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 46% -12.3%
10% -25.7% 44% -20.7%
15% -32.9% 39% -28.3%
20% -39.5% 31% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses105 / 120
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)225 / 225
History coverage40d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 225 Trades
no open positions (59 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$22 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$32 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$14 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$10 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$27 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$16 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$14 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$12 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$11 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$9 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$29 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$27 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$5 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$30 +162%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$30 +149%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $36 +$15 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$30 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$20 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$10 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$12 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$14 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$11 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $33 +$17 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $37 +$13 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $34 −$30 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $33 +$15 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$13 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$24 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$17 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$6 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$17 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $33 −$1 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $34 −$34 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$16 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $32 −$31 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 08 $29 +$22 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $12 −$11 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 06 $34 +$18 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 06 $38 +$15 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $36 −$35 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 05 $33 −$17 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 05 $36 +$18 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 05 $16 +$19 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 05 $17 −$16 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 05 $28 +$6 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $56 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $34 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $33 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $10 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $25 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $56 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $46 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $28 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $24 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $27 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $36 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $25 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $17 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $38 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $27 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $18 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $14 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $23 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $19 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $9 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $14 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $18 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $20 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $36 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 514 history records