Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B7 0xb724…2cca other 12 markets active 13d ago coverage 282d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$6,940 (+97%) realized +$4,782 · open +$2,158

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip

Net edge-0%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%4W / 5L

Drawdown22%max

Avg bet$599per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit8%portable

Net worth$3,953now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days+$12

30 days+$12

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)+3.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	+145.6%	+122.2%	100%	100%	+122.2%
≤90d	1	+145.6%	+122.2%	100%	100%	+122.2%
all	9	+14.9%	+3.9%	44%	44%	+74.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.9%	44%	+74.4%
10%	-6.0%	44%	+57.7%
15%	-15.1%	44%	+42.4%
20%	-23.4%	44%	+28.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 83% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +146% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +92% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,573 vs −$321 · ×4.9 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.92 per $1 lost it wins $3.92

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage

Net worth$3,953

Realized+$4,782

Unrealized+$2,158

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses4 / 5

Open positions3

Markets (closed)9 / 12

History coverage282d

Avg bet$599

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown22%

Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	19¢	$1,000	$2,399	+$1,399 (+140%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	26¢	$400	$1,141	+$741 (+185%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$395	$414	+$18 (+5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?	Jun 15	$8	+$12	+146%
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Mar 10	$214	−$214	-100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Mar 10	$800	−$631	-79%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	Nov 23	$500	−$500	-100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?	Sep 07	$3,061	+$5,215	+170%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:0 against Jannik Sinner?	Sep 07	$223	−$223	-100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	Sep 07	$60	+$37	+61%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	Sep 07	$400	+$1,027	+257%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open?	Sep 06	$74	−$37	-50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$406	12d
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$411	12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$1,028	12d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?	BUY No	40¢	$8	30d
Netanyahu out by March 31?	BUY Yes	13¢	$214	108d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL Yes	13¢	$169	108d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	BUY Yes	20¢	$250	216d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	BUY Yes	8¢	$250	229d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?	SELL Yes	100¢	$8,276	292d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:0 against Jannik Sinner?	BUY Yes	20¢	$23	292d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win 3:0 against Jannik Sinner?	BUY Yes	19¢	$200	292d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?	BUY Yes	45¢	$1,000	292d
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	SELL No	100¢	$96	292d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,427	292d
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	BUY No	62¢	$60	293d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	28¢	$400	294d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open?	BUY No	36¢	$37	294d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open?	SELL Yes	64¢	$37	294d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open?	BUY Yes	65¢	$37	294d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	16¢	$800	294d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?	BUY Yes	34¢	$2,061	295d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,952.93 · official $3,952.93 (match) · 35 history records