Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb722…c416 other 46 markets active 1d ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$20 (+3%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$8
14 days−$3
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$10
sports 2% $0
world 1% +$5
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +15.4% +4.4% 54% 54% +1.9%
≤30d 43 -32.2% -38.6% 33% 33% -63.8%
≤90d 46 -33.5% -39.8% 33% 33% -8.4%
all 46 -33.5% -39.8% 33% 33% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.8% 33% -8.4%
10% -45.6% 26% -17.2%
15% -50.8% 24% -25.2%
20% -55.6% 17% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage38d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +233%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 +$3 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 +$5 +42%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +227%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +80%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +118%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Philippines vs. Myanmar end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $6 −$6 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $6 −$5 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $68 −$66 -98%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 12 $49 −$47 -97%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $499 +$222 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 29h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $25 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $22 32h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $13 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $2 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records