Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:39:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb721…c442 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$39 (-32%) realized +$14 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$53
sports 30% +$19
other 15% −$11
world 9% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 57% 43% +2.3%
≤30d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 57% 43% +2.3%
≤90d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 57% 43% +2.3%
all 7 +0.8% -8.8% 57% 43% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 43% +2.3%
10% -17.5% 43% -7.5%
15% -25.5% 43% -16.5%
20% -32.8% 29% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage9d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $54 $1 −$53 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$8 +67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$8 +103%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$6 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$3 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $13 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 19h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 19h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $6 19h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 21h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 23h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $9 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 25h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 15¢ $10 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 32¢ $14 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 44¢ $15 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 20¢ $15 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.09 · official $1.09 (match) · 25 history records