Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb71f…b2c8 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,163 (+7%) realized +$3,244 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%20W / 15L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,301per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$2,303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,420
7 days+$3,835
14 days+$3,640
30 days+$3,640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$1,860
crypto 7% +$1,526
sports 4% +$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +10.1% -0.4% 62% 62% +2.4%
≤30d 35 -3.4% -12.6% 57% 57% -2.1%
≤90d 35 -3.4% -12.6% 57% 57% -2.1%
all 35 -3.4% -12.6% 57% 57% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 57% -2.1%
10% -21.0% 40% -11.5%
15% -28.6% 31% -20.0%
20% -35.6% 20% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$2,020) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$611 vs −$572 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$2,303
Realized+$3,244
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses20 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage10d
Avg bet$1,301
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $2,384 $2,303 −$81 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,014 +$836 +82%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3,389 +$491 +14%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2,025 +$1,362 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,537 −$1,516 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $184 +$82 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3,184 +$465 +15%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $204 −$21 -10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3,282 +$585 +18%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $307 −$26 -8%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,509 +$366 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $884 +$548 +62%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,391 +$283 +20%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $306 +$761 +248%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,367 +$164 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,013 −$1,013 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,387 +$1,015 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $870 +$197 +23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,007 +$324 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,363 +$512 +38%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $306 −$21 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $997 −$61 -6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,287 −$2,287 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,018 −$2,018 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,850 +$457 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,020 +$965 +48%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,968 +$1,414 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,025 +$1,362 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $55 +$35 +65%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 −$4 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $2,402 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,850 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $811 3h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $306 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $3,389 43h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,386 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,537 45h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 45h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,518 45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 81¢ $266 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,649 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $184 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $183 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $3,184 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,868 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,273 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $281 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,010 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $884 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,509 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,367 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $306 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,674 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $386 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,012 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,303.21 · official $2,303.21 (match) · 73 history records