Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb71e…fa19 other 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+3%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$3
sports 30% −$6
other 18% +$2
economics 8% $0
crypto 6% +$1
politics 5% +$29
weather 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 5 -1.4% -10.8% 20% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 5 -1.4% -10.8% 20% 0% -11.0%
all 39 +4.1% -5.8% 46% 5% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 5% -6.8%
10% -14.8% 3% -15.8%
15% -23.0% 3% -23.9%
20% -30.6% 3% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage472d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $40 −$2 -5%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $18 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? Mar 28 $25 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 24 $23 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $2 $0 -19%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Mar 21 $22 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $39 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? Mar 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 11 $21 $0 +2%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-03-06? Mar 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ajax vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Mar 05 $20 $0 -1%
Jets vs. Islanders Mar 05 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 3? Mar 05 $17 +$29 +173%
Will Club Brugge vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? Mar 03 $20 $0 -1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-04? Mar 03 $26 −$1 -4%
Raptors vs. Magic Mar 03 $20 $0 +2%
Detroit Mercy vs. Northern Kentucky Mar 03 $25 −$6 -24%
Lehigh vs. Loyola Maryland Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'DOGE' or 'Department of Government Efficiency' during Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? Mar 03 $17 $0 -2%
McNeese State vs. Stephen F. Austin Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 46°F or below on March 4? Mar 03 $19 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $41 12m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $42 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $42 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $42 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $38 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $40 24d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 183d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 379d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $2 393d
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2 417d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $2 431d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $25 446d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $25 446d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $11 449d
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? BUY No 98¢ $13 450d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $13 450d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $24 450d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? SELL No 98¢ $23 450d
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? BUY No 94¢ $18 451d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 96¢ $18 451d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? BUY No 96¢ $23 451d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $22 451d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 453d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records