Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B7 0xb71d…5aa1 world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 34L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$14
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$16
politics 17% −$1
other 15% +$1
culture 5% +$1
economics 4% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.6% +1.0% 50% 12% -5.7%
≤30d 16 +5.3% -4.8% 50% 6% -7.5%
≤90d 16 +5.3% -4.8% 50% 6% -7.5%
all 51 +1.4% -8.2% 33% 2% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 2% -8.5%
10% -17.0% 2% -17.3%
15% -25.0% 2% -25.3%
20% -32.4% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.05 per $1 lost it wins $5.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage265d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $11 +$10 +85%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $45 −$2 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $55 +$4 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $37 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $52 +$2 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $95 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 −$1 -18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $93 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $50 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jan 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Jan 31 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $22 $0 +1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 19 $3 $0 -16%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 19 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 12 $25 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 09 $54 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Oct 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $23 $0 +2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Sep 28 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Marco Francis win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? Sep 27 $8 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 24 $28 $0 -1%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $55 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $21 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $51 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $23 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $28 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $48 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $48 20h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $27 27h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $7 27h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $36 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $58 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $55 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $35 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $37 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $37 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $17 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $52 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $29 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $29 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $52 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $52 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $9 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $7 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.24 · official $55.24 (match) · 190 history records