Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:48:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B7 0xb71d…55f2 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,335 (+16%) realized +$1,440 · open −$105
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%17W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$157
14 days+$16
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$1,093
sports 11% +$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -21.1% -28.6% 27% 27% -40.5%
≤30d 40 -9.8% -18.4% 35% 35% +4.2%
≤90d 40 -9.8% -18.4% 35% 35% +4.2%
all 46 -11.5% -19.9% 37% 37% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 37% +5.2%
10% -27.6% 37% -4.9%
15% -34.6% 37% -14.0%
20% -41.0% 33% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$206 vs −$75 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$1,440
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses17 / 29
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage243d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Yes 15¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-97%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-99%)
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Yes 12¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $15 −$14 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 +$21 +101%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $35 +$23 +65%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $3 +$17 +510%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $91 −$91 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $16 −$15 -98%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $16 +$14 +93%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $18 +$49 +262%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $41 +$44 +105%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $21 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$52 +226%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $55 +$45 +82%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $23 +$37 +165%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $34 +$26 +79%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $21 +$39 +180%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $33 +$57 +172%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $297 +$143 +48%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jan 17 $999 +$639 +64%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 29 $115 −$115 -100%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $2,747 +$1,653 +60%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $1,619 +$623 +38%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $1,628 −$1,628 -100%
Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $26 4d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $26 4d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $20 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $6 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $30 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $2 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $5 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $5 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $66 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $16 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 5d
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $25 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $21 5d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 23¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.50 · official $7.96 · 111 history records