trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -2.8% | -12.0% | 20% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -2.8% | -12.0% | 20% | 0% | -9.8% |
| all | 25 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 52% | 12% | -7.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.9% | 12% | -7.8% |
| 10% | -16.7% | 4% | -16.6% |
| 15% | -24.7% | 4% | -24.7% |
| 20% | -32.1% | 4% | -32.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 17 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 27 | $33 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 25 | $5 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 25 | $3 | $0 | -8% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 11 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? | Jun 24 | $13 | +$2 | +15% |
| Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +11% |
| Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? | Apr 23 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 22 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 | Apr 19 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? | Apr 17 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Apr 16 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? | Apr 15 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | Apr 13 | $15 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 12 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? | Apr 11 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Masters? | Apr 10 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 | Apr 09 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 08 | $10 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? | Apr 01 | $1 | $0 | -16% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? | Mar 29 | $16 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will 'Alto Knights' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? | Mar 25 | $17 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? | Mar 21 | $16 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Apple launch a MacBook on February 19? | Mar 03 | $11 | +$5 | +52% |