Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb71a…a01b other 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 718d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$427 (-19%) realized −$422 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%33W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$138
14 days−$332
30 days−$469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$194
crypto 28% −$104
sports 19% −$139
world 2% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -65.7% -68.9% 20% 20% -47.3%
≤30d 73 -41.8% -47.4% 34% 32% -39.0%
≤90d 80 -41.5% -47.1% 34% 31% -38.9%
all 93 -36.7% -42.7% 35% 33% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.7% 33% -29.0%
10% -48.2% 31% -35.8%
15% -53.2% 27% -42.0%
20% -57.8% 19% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

718d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$422
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses33 / 60
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)93 / 99
History coverage718d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $91 $85 −$5 (-6%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 57¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Senegal to score first vs. Norway? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$18 +69%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +109%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $124 −$122 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +55%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $107 +$59 +55%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $20 +$11 +56%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$16 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 38m
Senegal to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 40m
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $15 44m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $92 1h
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $10 26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 60¢ $25 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 48¢ $10 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $15 28h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 28h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 39h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $43 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $78 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $12 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.23 · official $110.23 (match) · 179 history records