Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb71a…840d crypto 42 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-19%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate62%26W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day86.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$31
sports 1% −$1
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -12.4% -20.8% 62% 36% -28.8%
≤30d 42 -12.4% -20.8% 62% 36% -28.8%
≤90d 42 -12.4% -20.8% 62% 36% -28.8%
all 42 -12.4% -20.8% 62% 36% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 36% -28.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 19% -35.6%
15% -35.3% 10% -41.8%
20% -41.6% 10% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses26 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day86.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$28 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records