Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:09:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb717…a899 crypto 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$120 (-29%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-66.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -62.9% -66.4% 29% 14% -68.6%
≤30d 7 -62.9% -66.4% 29% 14% -68.6%
≤90d 7 -62.9% -66.4% 29% 14% -68.6%
all 7 -62.9% -66.4% 29% 14% -68.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -66.4% 14% -68.6%
10% ← realistic here -69.7% 14% -71.6%
15% -72.6% 14% -74.4%
20% -75.3% 14% -76.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$43 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $71 −$65 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $127 −$59 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $94 −$64 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $53 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$18 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $54 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $56 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $64 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $47 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records